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A new study by scientists from the universities of Helsinki, Durham, and Toulouse has offered a revised view of the Milky Way’s long-term future, suggesting that a collision with the neighboring Andromeda galaxy may not be as inevitable—or imminent—as once believed.
Using data from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency’s Gaia mission, the research team simulated the dynamic evolution of the Milky Way and Andromeda over the next 10 billion years. These simulations incorporated recent observational data, including the gravitational influence of the Milky Way’s largest satellite galaxy, the Large Magellanic Cloud, and, for the first time, accounted for observational uncertainties.
Currently, Andromeda is moving toward the Milky Way at a speed of about 100 kilometers per second. Previous studies predicted a direct collision between the two galaxies in roughly five billion years, leading to their mutual destruction and the formation of a new, elliptical galaxy composed of their combined stars.
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However, after running 100,000 simulations, the researchers found that the probability of a collision within the next five billion years is only about 2 percent. In more than half of the simulated scenarios, the two galaxies come close to each other, losing enough energy through gravitational interaction to eventually merge. But this merger is projected to occur much later—between eight and ten billion years from now.
By that point, our Sun will have exhausted its nuclear fuel and will no longer be shining. In many other simulations, the galaxies miss each other by large distances, remaining largely undisturbed and continuing to evolve separately for billions of years. While these findings challenge long-held assumptions about the Milky Way’s ultimate fate, the study’s authors stress the inherent difficulty of predicting galactic dynamics with complete precision. Lead researcher Dr. Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki noted that the difference in outcome does not mean earlier models were incorrect. Rather, the new simulations benefited from improved telescope data and the inclusion of a broader set of variables, leading to a more nuanced view of the galactic future.
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2025-06-03
